We have no way of knowing what lies in store for us. All we can do is use the information at hand to make the best decision possible.
–Secretary William Cleary, The Wedding Crashers
I am getting really cranky about this new phenomenon where people act like they’re doing history when they’re not — and yes, journalists and pundits, this means YOU.
First there was The AP’s attempt to report on the “impact” of the “historic” number of female justices on the Supreme Court. Then Quayle Jr. calling Obama the worst president in history. Simply not possible, because Obama won’t be “in history” for at least fifty years. I’d probably go a hundred, maybe two hundred, just to be safe.
Some ground rules: 1) being irritated or excited about something right now doesn’t make it historically significant, and 2) calling something “historic” is no excuse for random speculation.
Then there’s Newt Gingrich. Apart from the lecherous sociopath stuff, he’s a terrible historian, specializing in sloppy parallels between completely different socioeconomic systems (like the U.S. and China) to back up his confident assertions of what will happen. This is prognostication, even worse “history” than speculation.
I know the History Channel likes to promote the idea that history is happening “before our eyes” but that’s just not how it works. Knowing your history — no, I should say, knowing how to do it well — makes you a great critical thinker with mad analytical skills and profound insight into human nature. But it should also give you a good sense of your limits. To wit: even in a world full of Tweets and IM and online chat, there are certain important things that you just can’t know right away — like the broad impact of supposedly “historic” decisions.
I guess calling something “historic” is supposed to convince you that it’s important enough to show up in future textbooks. But how about a scenario where a textbook 200 years from now contains the following analysis: “Barack Obama was the first African-American president of the United States. And that didn’t make nearly as much difference as anyone thought it would at the time.” Or “In 2010, there was finally a Supreme Court that was sort of representative of the U.S. And yet nothing very exciting happened as a result.” What? While we’re indulging in speculation, shouldn’t we consider all the possibilities?
But people using the word “historic” don’t want you, the listener, to think about that particular possibility because it’s the complete opposite of the malarkey they’re selling. And sadly, with media literacy at an all time low in America right now, the “historic” ploy works like a charm. Even more sadly, trained historians often play right along, acting as though important historical events were predestined or willingly participating in the insta-comment media culture.
As a counterpoint, I’d like to leave you with this hastily-compiled List of Stuff That No One Called At The Time. Just a little reminder that one of the coolest things about doing history is recognizing the “Huh?” moments — the things that nobody predicted or thought much of at the time, but then, with a little perspective, turned out to be important and influential events. I guess you could even call them “historic.”
Cleopatra: the “breaking news” on this one was her death and how awesome the Romans were. Who knew she would win that PR battle?
Constantine: he converted to Christianity when the empire was 90% pagan. There weren’t any headlines, but if there had been, they probably would have read “WTF?”
Queen Elizabeth: Another female ruler who shouldn’t have happened, another religious decision to uphold. Who knew how that one was going to turn out?
How about you, readers? Any favorite historical events/persons that no one could have predicted would be such a big deal?


“Historic” as a rhetorical term, huh – like “crazy”… In J.J. Winkler’s word, “oh what a tangled web we weave when we are learning to … deceive.”
Btw, where did you get the 90% for Constantine?
The 90% came from An Esteemed Professor who had the bad luck to be sitting next to me when I posed this question to the room at large. Probably should have footnoted that!
Numbers, especially about such matters, make me uneasy. What did you respond to The Esteemed Professor?
That must make life very difficult.
That seems like a non sequitur – how did the prof respond?
Not so, merely an observation on your numero-wiggins, which I apparently do not share. And given this fundamental difference, an extended Q&A on the subject holds little interest.
Equivocation doesn’t help you then. Your post is on how to do history, and so when it comes to claiming historical numbers, you should be very cautious.
My posts, as you have observed in the past, are glib generalizations. I am quite content for them to appear as such.
Incidentally, one of my students posted something on my blog – it’s about an archeological find (a box with bones) in Bulgaria and the hilarious scholarly exchanges that followed. Here is the link:
http://christotechne.wordpress.com/2010/08/15/archaeology-controversy-in-bulgaria/
oh my gosh there are too many. maybe i will write you a paper and you can grade it. a few off the top of my head…
the introduction of the spanish horse to americas…
the OTHER shot heard ’round the world…the assassination of franz ferdinand leading to the kick off of ww1…yes, this definitely made headlines but could anyone have predicted the outcome?
the legislative developments in the western world regulating sex trade…you know. save the armies, not so much the women…
the history of the potato plant and the impact it made on civilization…
Noooo, no more paper grading for me!!! Nice list of important events, the sort of things we all get raised to think of as an inevitable parts of a timeline…I particularly like the potato, though, just ’cause I’m partial to potatoes:-)
“The annual grain ship has arrived in Genoa from the Crimea. A few sailors appear to be dead of an unknown illness, but the harbormaster is sure that their sickness is not contagious.”
The Genoese Tatler, 10 October 1347
A great, albeit morbid, example!